Daily log

Biweekly review wk38. Controls: 0 halts (1 test halt 9/10, cleared correctly by Colin only). 0 V23 spreads in 6 live days -> two-key untested, Alex confirm/reject ratio 0/0 undefined (flagged wk1/wk2 by Elena, now more urgent). Root cause found: Jordan/Sarah runs land 17:37-23:05 ET, after 15:55 close, so Taylor's exits-before-entries gate (Step 0.4) blocks proposals even on 9/15 when IWM cleared ADX and window was still open at Taylor's 15:35 run. Reconciliation gap on 9/11 (Jordan+Sarah didn't run) previously flagged, recurring pattern of late/skipped reconciler runs. No positions to review (0 open) -- no recommendations, no calibration proposals (insufficient data).

Second monthly review. Desk record: still zero V23 spreads after 6 calendar days live; realized P&L unchanged at -[redacted] (all pre-V23 legacy). Key finding: agent_runs.csv shows Jordan (reconciler) running after the 15:55 ET window closes on 9/14 and 9/15, and not at all during market hours on 9/11 -- so Taylor's Step 0.4 gate ('Jordan hasn't run yet today') blocked entry proposals on 4 of 5 live trading days for a scheduling reason, not a market-signal reason; only 9/10 had the gate satisfied in time, and that day CPI blackout blocked entries anyway. Researched: debit-spread-specific 50% profit-take evidence (narrows last month's short-premium-derived gap), ADX period-10 false-signal rate now quantified at ~30-40% higher than period-14, independent small-account source corroborating a ~2-position correlation cap, and SPY/QQQ/IWM liquidity ranking confirmation. Appended dated notes to Playbook.md §13 only. Added 1 new proposal to proposals.json (re-time Jordan's/Alex's scheduled runs so the two-key gate is reachable during the trading window) alongside the 2 still-open proposals from last month (IV-rank ceiling, correlation-cluster cap). No architecture-kill finding on account size; the open edge question remains unanswered pending V23 trade history, which still doesn't exist.

Pre-open posture: defensive. FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 2pm ET inside every new 30-45 DTE window. IWM only real trend (ADX 36.3, bearish); SPY/QQQ chop . VIX 17.2, oil spiking on Saudi pipeline attack, AI-slowdown selloff in semis. Research feed confirms FOMC blackout (block_new_entries) and correlation cap (max_spreads=2).

Week 3 record (V23 day 7, live since 9/9). Account flat at [redacted], 100% cash, 0 open spreads, 0 V23 spreads ever opened. Realized P&L this week (9/11-9/15): [redacted] zero trades. Control audit: Fri 9/11 reconciliation gap for Jordan/Sarah persists as flagged by Steph; Mon 9/14 and Tue 9/15 both fully clean, though Jordan logged 4 redundant reconciles today (22:14-22:35) vs Sarah's 1 -- harmless but inefficient. Two-key rule now untested 7 days running: 0 proposals, 0 confirms, 0 rejects -- Alex Chen's rejection rate remains undefined, not zero, and this is now the single most important open question on the desk. Signal quality: signal.py was invoked exactly once all week (never on 9/11, 9/14, or 9/15) because the exits-before-entries Step-0.4 gate blocked every session before reaching it (Jordan had not yet run when Taylor checked) -- this is a scheduling-order block, not a market-driven one, and is a more fundamental gap than ADX filtering. Lifetime ADX<20 screen-outs: 2 (SPY 14.3, QQQ 12.7 on 9/10). Cost check: [redacted] fees this week (no orders); lifetime fees [redacted], all from the 9/10 legacy flatten -- slippage/edge math on spreads remains unmeasurable with zero spread trades to date.

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23:02 ET run: not halted, trading window closed (23:02 ET, past 15:55 cutoff) -- placed nothing per Step 0.2. Reconciled broker vs desk directly: 0 option positions, 0 equity positions, 0 option/equity orders today at broker; matches empty desk records for 2026-09-15 (last trades.csv/orders_*.json activity is the 3 legacy equity closes from 2026-09-10). No legacy shares held (OPEN/NIO/LCID all absent from broker) -- Task 1 no-op. Task 2 not attempted: window closed regardless of Jordan's status, though Jordan/Sarah both already ran clean earlier today (22:14-22:35 ET) per agent_runs.csv. No pending proposal on file. /cash [redacted]/[redacted] (100% cash, well above 15% min). 0 of 3 spreads open, 0 of 8 orders used today.

Window closed (23:05 ET, after 15:55 cutoff); no pending proposal to verify. No action taken.

Reconciled clean: 0 option positions, 0 equity positions, 0 orders today, both broker and desk records agree. Trading window closed (22:34 ET, after 15:55 cutoff) - no trading action taken. Halted=false. No pending entries. No recommendations on file. Nothing to exit.

Pre-close reconciliation clean: broker shows 0 option positions, 0 equity positions, 0 orders today; desk records (trades.csv, state/) agree - no activity since 2026-09-10 legacy flatten. Book is flat overnight. Cash 100% ([redacted]), 0/3 spreads, [redacted]/[redacted] risk, 0/8 orders used. No exit-rule gaps (no open positions to have one). FOMC decision 9/16 2pm ET already flagged in posture as defensive/block-new-entries-adjacent; moot tonight since no positions are exposed to the gap. Note: this run executed at 23:05 ET, well after the 15:30 ET slot and the 15:55 ET window close - flagging the timing gap itself, not a risk finding.

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